The Grishverse was back earlier this year after a two-year hiatus, but now we face another wait for season 3 of Shadow and Bone, which has yet to be confirmed. Will Shadow and Bone get a season 3 renewal or the rumored Six of Crows spinoff? Here’s what we know so far.
Based on the Grishaverse books by Leigh Bardugo, Shadow and Bone is Netflix’s big-budget fantasy show helmed by Eric Heisserer and starring Jessie Mei Li, Archie Renaux, Freddy Carter, and Ben Barnes.
Season 1 landed on Netflix in April 2021, with season 2 released almost two years later in March 2023.
Has Shadow and Bone been renewed?
Official Renewal Status: Not Yet Renewed
Our Renewal Prediction: Likely Cancelation (Last updated: April 4th, 2023)
As of July 2023, the show remains in limbo alongside the long-rumored Six of Crows spin-off that’s not yet been greenlit.
A renewal of Shadow and Bone will come down to the numbers, given it hasn’t earned itself an early renewal upfront. As we’ve covered before, Netflix shows have to meet several internal metrics used at Netflix, with one of the most important metrics, we’re told, being the completion rate.
The WGA strike is also one of the major factors at play right now. Writers on the show would be prohibited from returning to work on the show until the strike has been resolved, which, as it stands, remains unclear. On top of the fact that the show would likely be two years away (which we’ve seen damages a show’s viewership repeatedly), it makes the future look bleak.
What have Netflix and people tied to the show said about a renewal?
Sophie Holland, the casting director on the series, told Deadline in late-May 2023 (notably over two months after the season 2 premiere):
“…as for Shadow And Bone, we’re really hoping for a third season. It seems to have a huge fan base. It’s a fresh, up-and-coming cast and the story is very faithful to the books, which is refreshing. It’s all about that first month’s performance on Netflix, I guess, so we’ll find out soon if it’s being recommissioned. It’s a tricky time, as you noted, so we’ll see.”
The latest we’ve had to any news regarding the future came in mid-June 2023 with an LA Times post talking about how fandoms are trying to game the system to get their shows renewed. Toward the end of the article, it states:
“Netflix said it hasn’t made a decision on “Shadow and Bone” Season 3 yet. As with many shows across the entertainment industry, programming conversations are on hold due to the writers’ strike, a company spokesperson said.”
It’s worth noting that the social media accounts for the show have gone silent for over two months at the time of updating. The last official Twitter post came on May 5th, 2023. Netflix’s TUDUM website notably hasn’t posted any Shadow and Bone content since March.
i know he's the darkling but this photo is pure sunshine pic.twitter.com/YFQEesmi02
— Shadow And Bone (@shadowandbone_) May 5, 2023
How well did Shadow and Bone Season 2 perform on Netflix?
So how well did Shadow and Bone season 2 perform on Netflix? We’ve tracked the show’s progress using several sources, including Netflix itself.
Netflix Top 10 Hourly Numbers
Let’s begin with Netflix itself, which releases hourly data for its top 40 shows and movies every Tuesday.
It featured in the Netflix top 10s for five weeks, picking up 160.79 million hours watched. Here’s how those hours break down from week to week:
| Week Period | Hours Viewed(M) | Rank | Week in Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 12th, 2023 to March 19th, 2023 | 50,400,000 | 2 | 1 |
| March 19th, 2023 to March 26th, 2023 | 55,030,000 (+9%) | 2 | 2 |
| March 26th, 2023 to April 2nd, 2023 | 27,000,000 (-51%) | 3 | 3 |
| April 2nd, 2023 to April 9th, 2023 | 16,740,000 (-38%) | 6 | 4 |
| April 9th, 2023 to April 16th, 2023 | 11,620,000 (-31%) | 9 | 5 |
Sadly, we’re unable to compare viewing hours of season 2 with season 1 because these weren’t released and are a relatively new thing Netflix has introduced. Instead, we only learned that 55 million people watched season 1 in the first 28 days.
Its opening weekend could be illustrative of the problem, we’ve compared the show’s second season purely to other genre shows in their first week; we can see Shadow and Bone is set between two groups of shows thus far, meaning, in our opinion, it’s currently skirting the line.
| Title | Week 1 – Hours in Top 10s | Status |
|---|---|---|
| The Sandman | 69,480,000 | Renewed |
| Vikings: Valhalla S2 | 55,350,000 | Renewed |
| Shadow And Bone S2 | 50,400,000 | Unknown |
| Raising Dion S2 | 49,090,000 | Canceled |
| Fate: The Winx Saga | 48,960,000 | Canceled |
| Warrior Nun S2 | 26,220,000 | Canceled |
If we compare the first five weeks of Shadow and Bone to other Netflix series that did get renewals, we can see it notably lagged behind.
| Week | Shadow and Bone S2 | You S4 | Ginny & Georgia S2 | The Sandman |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50,400,000 | 92,070,000 | 180,470,000 | 69,480,000 |
| 2 | 55,030,000 | 64,060,000 | 162,720,000 | 127,500,000 |
| 3 | 27,000,000 | 27,750,000 | 87,400,000 | 77,240,000 |
| 4 | 16,740,000 | 75,810,000 | 55,610,000 | 53,790,000 |
| 5 | 11,620,000 | 64,060,000 | 38,090,000 | 33,320,000 |
How does the CVE (complete viewing equivalent – divide the number of hours vs. the show’s runtime) look? It tells the same story, with the show struggling to get more CVE than Sweet Tooth season 2 after its first 14 days:
In week 2, our top 10 report looked at the evolution of the series and compare it to several other YA fantasy shows that also weren’t renewed:
Shadow and Bone S2 vs. Fate: The Winx Saga vs. Warrior Nun vs. Raising Dion S2
Raw Top 10 Data from FlixPatrol
One positive sign for the show is its ability to stick around in the top 10s for a sustained period of time.
According to FlixPatrol, the show was still the fourth biggest around the globe as of April 4th, 2023, and showed particular strength in countries like Australia, the Nordics, and Central to East Europe.
At the very least, we’d be looking for Shadow and Bone to stay in the top 10s until a month has passed since season 2 debuted.
External Data Demand for Shadow and Bone
TelevisionStats.com uses metrics from around the web, including Wikipedia traffic, IMDb traffic, Twitter, Reddit, and Torrents, to judge what the most “in-demand” shows at any given time. Shadow and Bone looks to have performed well in this department:
TelevisionStats.com for Shadow and Bone
Nielsen Top 10 Data for Shadow and Bone Season 2
Moving onto Nielsen’s top 10 data (also tracked via our top 10 search tool), we can see how the show has evolved from season 1 to season 2. Their data tracks connected device viewership, specifically in the United States.
As seen below, the show had good viewership in week one and week two but notably didn’t grow between those two weeks and, worse yet, saw around a 50% drop in week 3:
Nielsen top 10 data for Shadow and Bone
Finally, how about critical consensus?
On that front, things look decent. Season 2 on RottenTomatoes scored well with critics (just like season 1), with an 84% rating compared to the 89% for season 1.
IMDb scores for the individual episodes in season 2 ranged from 7.6 to 8.6
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